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Handicapping the market in Sports Betting

Handicapping The marketing in sports Betting, understand the basics, the definition, the goal.

 

Intro

Handicapping the market in sports betting involves analyzing and predicting sports outcomes with the aim of identifying betting opportunities where the odds may not accurately reflect the true chances of the outcomes.

 This approach can give bettors an edge over the bookmakers and potentially lead to profitable betting in the long term.

Here are key aspects of handicapping the market in sports betting

  1. Understanding the Basics

  • Definition: Handicapping involves evaluating the playing conditions, historical performance, player injuries, and other relevant factors to determine the likely outcome of a sporting event.
  • Goal: The primary goal is to find value bets where the odds offered are higher than the actual probability of the event happening.
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  1. Factors to Consider in Sports betting

 

Team and Player Performance 

Analyze past performance, including wins, losses, scores, and statistics.

 

Injuries and Absences 

Player injuries or absences can significantly impact the outcome of a game.

 

Playing Conditions

Consider the venue, weather conditions, and any other environmental factors.

 

Motivation and Psychological Factors 

Team motivation, morale, and psychological factors can influence performance.

 

Market Movements

Observing how odds change can provide insights into what other bettors and possibly insiders think about the event.

 

  1. Techniques and Tools in Sports Betting

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  • Statistical Analysis: Using statistical models to predict outcomes based on historical data.
  • Machine Learning: Advanced bettors might use machine learning algorithms to analyze large datasets for predictive insights.
  • Odds Comparison: Comparing odds in sports betting from various bookmakers to find the best value.
  • Professional Services: Some bettors subscribe to professional handicapping services for tips and insights.

 

  1. The Role of Bookmakers in Sports Betting

  • Setting the Odds: Bookmakers set the odds to reflect the probabilities of outcomes but also to balance their books.
  • Overground: Understanding the overground (bookmaker’s margin) is crucial for identifying value bets.

 

  1. Strategies for Success in Sports betting

  • Discipline: Maintain discipline in betting strategy, avoiding emotional decisions and sticking to a pre-defined bankroll management plan.
  • Specialization: Focusing on specific leagues, sports, or types of bets can lead to better insights and more successful betting.
  • Record Keeping: Keeping detailed records of bets, outcomes, and analyses to refine strategies over time.
  • Sharp Books vs. Square Books in Sports Betting
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In sports betting, there are two main types of bookmakers: “sharp books” and “square books” (also known as “recreational sportsbooks”).

 Here’s a simpler look at what these terms mean

Sharp Books

  • What Are They? These are betting sites known for their competitive odds and high betting limits. They’re where professional bettors go in sports betting.
  • Example 1: Pinnacle Sports
  • Doesn’t allow US players.
  • Offers low-cost betting options on NFL games and lets you bet up to $30,000 at a time. You can place multiple max bets.
  • Known for being tough to win against because of their good odds.
  • Example 2: Bookmaker. EU

Accepts US players.

  • Known for setting betting odds early, quick money withdrawals, and no betting limits based on your winning history.
  • You can bet up to $50,000 on NFL football games.

Square Books

What Are They?

These are more casual betting sites that aren’t focused on attracting professional bettors.

  • Example: Bovadaa Sports Betting Site.
  • Only available to US residents.
  • Not aimed at pros, so it posts odds later, offers smaller bets, and doesn’t provide options to bet on everything.

Key Differences

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  • Target Audience: Sharp books cater to serious, professional bettors, while square books are more for casual bettors.
  • Betting Limits: Sharp books allow you to bet more money, while square books have lower limits in sports betting.
  • Odds Availability: Sharp books might offer odds earlier than square books, which wait until closer to the game time.
  • Attracting Pros vs. Casuals: Sharp books are designed for those who bet big and often. whereas square books are suited for those just betting for fun or on big events in sports betting.

 

Off Market Prices

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Understanding Sharp and Square Betting Sites

 

When we talk about “sharp” and “square” betting sites, we’re discussing two different types of sportsbooks.

 Here’s what that means in simpler terms in Sports Betting

Sharp Betting Sites

These sites are known for their accurate, competitive odds. They cater to professional or very serious bettors.

Square Betting Sites

These are more casual betting platforms. They’re designed for everyday sports fans, not necessarily for experts.

 

Shopping for the Best Odds

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Looking for the best betting odds across different sites can reveal some interesting opportunities. Here’s an example to explain this better

Example: Finding Off-Market Prices in Sports betting

  • Imagine most betting sites list the New England Patriots at a -7 point spread with -105 odds, and their opponents, the Washington Redskins, at a +7 spread with -115 odds.
  • But then you see Bovada offering the Patriots at -7.5 with -105 odds and the Redskins at +7.5 with -115 odds.

Making Smart Betting Choices

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Betting on the Patriots at Bovada wouldn’t be wise because their odds are worse compared to other sites. This is what we call “taking the wrong side of an off-market price in sports Betting.

However, betting on the Redskins +7.5 at -115 on Bovada could be a smart move. Despite the slight odds difference, it’s a more favorable position, making it a potentially good bet.

 

Summary: The Value of Shopping Around

By comparing odds across different sites, you can spot the best deals. While sharp sites offer tight, competitive odds for serious bettors. square sites like Bovada may sometimes provide odds that offer unexpected value for casual bettors.

 

Handicap Market in Sports Betting

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We’ve talked about the difference between sharp (professional) and recreational (casual) betting sites.

Now, let’s dive into a concept called “handicapping the market” and start with a question to make things clearer.

 

The Betting Choice Question

  • Imagine this situation in NFL football betting:
  • Sharp Books Offers the Patriots at -550 to win and the Buffalo Bills at +450 to win.
  • Another Offer Appears Patriots at -500 to win and the Bills at +500 to win.

 

Which bet would you pick, and why?

Some might choose the Patriots simply because they like betting on the team expected to win.

However, let’s analyze this more deeply the value of each bet in sports Betting.

  • Understanding the Value of Each Bet in Sports betting

Patriots at -500: Even though this seems like a better deal than -550, it’s a bet with a negative expected value (-EV). This means, that over time, you’re expected to lose money on such bets.

  • Bills at +500: Contrary to the Patriots’ bet, this one has a positive expected value (+EV). In simpler terms, betting on the Bills here could lead to profits over time because the payout is more generous than what the sharp books offer.

 

The Lesson Here

Before we move on, it’s essential to grasp that not all bets are equal. Even if a team like the Patriots is favored to win. The odds offered can make a bet on them less valuable. Conversely, betting on an underdog like the Bills might offer more value under certain odds, making it a smarter long-term bet.

 

Steam betting

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The Power of Steam Betting

Steam betting is a strategy that involves watching how betting odds change across different sites. It can be very profitable if you understand it well. Here’s an easy-to-understand example to explain this concept.

 

  • An Example of Basketball Betting in sports betting.
  • The Situation: Every betting site has the Milwaukee Bucks at -7.5 with -105 odds and the Washington Wizards at +7.5 with -115 odds.
  • The Change: Suddenly, Bookmaker. EU changes the odds to Bucks -8 with -110 odds, and 5dimes changes to Bucks -8 with -108 odds.
  • The Opportunity: However, casual betting sites like JustBet, Bovada, and TopBet still show the Bucks at -7.5 with -105 odds.

 

What to Do?

The smart action is to quickly bet on the Bucks at -7.5 with -105 odds on one of the casual sites before they update their odds too.

 

Why Does Steam Betting Work?

  • Trigger for Change: The odds at professional betting sites don’t change for no reason. It could be because a very successful bettor made a big bet or there’s new information about a player’s health or lineup changes.

 

  • Following the Pros: These changes often come from professional bettors placing large bets. By noticing these changes early, you can bet on the same outcomes as the pros but using casual sites that haven’t updated their odds yet.

 

The Goal

Our aim with steam betting is to mimic the bets of professional bettors by using recreational sites. This allowus to bet at the same favorable odds before they adjust in sports betting. This can lead to making more profitable bets by taking advantage of the delay in odds updates on more casual betting platforms.

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Conclusion

Handicapping the market in sports betting is both an art and a science.it require  a blend of analytical skills, discipline, and ongoing learning. By carefully analyzing various factors , strategic betting practices bettors can increase their chances of identifying value bets.

You can achieve long-term profitability by analyzing. However, it’s important to remember that sports betting involves risk, and losses are inevitable. Responsible betting practices and risk management are crucial for a sustainable and ethical approach to sports betting.

 

 

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